23 Giu. 2015 - Elisa Palazzi

Water cycle in the mountains:
observations, future projections and their uncertainties

Presenta: Elisa Palazzi
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (ISAC‐CNR)

This talk will address key aspects of the water cycle in the mountains. Special attention will be given to precipitation, one of the most challenging variables both to measure and to model in areas with complex orography. Evaluating and quantifying the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, on water resources and on hydrological risks, and the modeling of small‐scale land surface‐atmosphere interactions require climate projections at very high spatial resolution, and in particular a good representation of small scale precipitation and precipitation extremes and of the associated uncertainty. I will discuss the propagation of uncertainty in the modeling chain connecting data from global and regional climate models to small‐scale precipitation fields obtained through a set of downscaling methods. Applications of such a climate chain to the Karakoram‐ Himalayan mountains and to the Alps will be presented.
The talk will also provide some hints at the elevation‐dependent warming (EDW) phenomenon, that is, the amplification of warming rates with elevation, highlighting the likely effects of this mechanism on the cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and ultimately on the water cycle and to the mountain ecosystems and biodiversity. Preliminary model results on the EDW in the Tibetan Plateau‐Himalaya regions will be presented and discussed, together with the needs of improve knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations and model simulations.

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